Why is the Premier League investigating Man City and what effect could it have?

There has never been a Premier League investigation more complex, contentious and costly.

Manchester City spent 12 weeks defending themselves in private hearings into alleged financial wrongdoing. And it's now 12 weeks since they finished with the club's fate still unknown.

Their very future in the Premier League - won eight times by them since 2012 - is resting on the outcome of the three-person judicial panel.

Are they to be vindicated or found guilty of cheating Financial Fair Play rules to build an all-conquering squad?

There have been up to 130 alleged rule breaches to assess covering 14 seasons with a battalion of lawyers deployed on both sides.

Did City disguise the source of sponsorship revenue to inflate the value and artificially boost income?

Did they suppress salaries of a player and manager with side payments?

A money trail is alleged to flow back to Abu Dhabi companies and club owner, Sheikh Mansour, who is also vice president of the United Arab Emirates.

Even the wealthiest owners of clubs have been unable to freely spend on players since FFP was introduced into European football in 2011.

The rules impeded the ambitions of clubs like City unaccustomed to much success but who attracted an owner in 2008 willing to spend lavishly to win trophies.

Verdicts - still potentially weeks away - could shake English football and reshape it.

These decisions are consequential not just for one football competition in one country but for Abu Dhabi's standing in the world with its flagship sports investment fighting for its reputation.

The accusations

No specific allegations of wrongdoing were published when the charges came in 2023, only broader potential rule breaches.

But this case was sparked by the same tranche of "Football Leaks" documents published by German outlet Der Spiegel in 2018 that sparked a UEFA investigation.

In part, after showing alleged wrongdoing occurred too long ago to be punished by UEFA, City overturned an initial Champions League ban but they were still fined €10m for obstructing the investigation.

The Premier League has charged City in a similar vein, with not cooperating and assisting with them in "utmost good faith" by providing documents and information across five seasons until to 2022-23 from December 2018 - just after Football Leaks published.

The widest range of the same rule breaches covers 2009 to 2018 and the accusation that City did not provide "accurate financial information that gives a true and fair view of the club's financial position, in particular with respect to its revenue (including sponsorship revenue), its related parties and its operating costs".

Football Leaks evidence alleged there was a cover-up of the true source of income.

Take one example.

Internal City emails appeared to show Abu Dhabi-owned Etihad Airways paying at one point £67.5m for stadium naming rights and shirt sponsorship but apparently receiving most of it back - £59.9m - from City's holding company, Abu Dhabi United Group.

From what it assessed during City's appeal against a UEFA punishment, the Court of Arbitration for Sport determined in 2020 that Abu Dhabi United Group did not fund the sponsorships.

We know from the Premier League that full details of a manager's pay might not have been provided from seasons 2009-10 to 2012-13.

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That covered Roberto Mancini's period as manager. Football Leaks alleged he doubled his base City salary of £1.45m for advising a club in Abu Dhabi owned by Sheikh Mansour. Should this actually have been considered part of his City salary?

When I asked the Italian coach about the allegations in 2020, he replied: "I don't know nothing. I don't remember".

City are also accused of not providing full details of player pay between 2010 and 2016. That follows claims around image-rights payments to Yaya Toure allegedly made by Abu Dhabi United Group rather than City themselves.

For five seasons - covering 2013 to 2018 - City are also accused of not complying with UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules.

What is FFP?

It is the system that came into force in 2011 requiring clubs playing in European competitions to approach break even when factoring commercial income with spending on transfers and salaries.

The intention was to prevent clubs going out of business amid the global financial crisis of the time.

But clubs like City saw the rules as an attempt by an established elite to prevent newly-enriched sides from gatecrashing the pursuit of trophies.

Sponsorships with companies linked to owners have to be set at fair market rates to prevent overstated revenue - particularly for clubs with state backers.

The Premier League's version of the rules morphed into Profit and Sustainability regulations.

City view

City, who have denied all the charges, complained the leaks came from "illegal hacking".

Self-taught computer mastermind Rui Pinto, the Portuguese man behind Football Leaks, has claimed he acted as a whistleblower in the public interest. He has been convicted in Portugal of attempted extortion, illegal access to data and breach of correspondence.

City have not expanded on the written statement issued in February 2023 in response to the charges, insisting there had been "extensive engagement" and "detailed materials" provided to the league as part of a "comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence".

City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak complained in an internal interview: "It's taking longer than anyone hoped for."

But the Premier League accused City in 2018 of not fully cooperating with the investigation which could account for the delays.

Premier League view

Premier League chief executive Richard Masters has been unable to discuss the specifics of a pending case, only defending the need for financial regulations to protect the competitiveness of the competition.

"There is no happy alternative to enforcing the rules, which everyone has agreed at the beginning of each season," he told Sky Sports at the start of this season.

"They have looked each other in the eye and shaken each other's hand and said 'we will abide by these rules'. So the Premier League has to enforce rules."

The consequences

An unprecedented case could bring an unprecedented punishment.

Surely being found guilty of multiple violations would exceed the recent points deductions received by Everton (eight) and Nottingham Forest (four) after they exceeded allowable losses?

The deception City is accused of could bring heavier penalties.

The title is out of reach but being docked eight points could deny City qualification for the Champions League, leading to a £100m+ revenue hit next season.

A vast deduction of around 40 points for severe multiple breaches could lead to relegation.

A heavy fine could help the Premier League recoup a legal bill that soared to around £50m last season.

A transfer embargo could inhibit the ability to rebuild a squad that has unusually struggled this season.

Reading the verdict

It would not be surprising if somehow both City and the Premier League try to claim victory.

We have seen this in recent unrelated panel decisions on current PSR rules and Associated Party Transaction clauses that determine how much can be earned from companies linked to owners.

Those tribunals have added to the legal burden on the Premier League as City overwhelms the leadership with an onslaught of legal challenges.