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One in two children in Australia will be obese or overweight by 2050, a new study predicts, unless decision makers correct “monumental societal failures”.
The research was part of a global study analysing the rates of overweight and obesity classifications amongst five to 24-years-olds from 1990 to 2021 and using that data to forecast rates up to 2050 if current trends were to continue.
The researchers found 36% of Australian five to 24-year-olds – 2.3 million children and adolescents – were classified as overweight or living with obesity in 2021, which placed Australia as having the fifth-highest prevalence of obesity out of high-income countries, behind the United States in first and New Zealand second.
The study, published in the Lancet on Tuesday, was led by the Murdoch children’s research institute.
By 2050, the study predicted Australia would have the second-highest rate of obesity prevalence in children in the high-income world, behind Chile, with one in three Australian children and adolescents (2.2m) being obese by 2050.
With another 1.6m children predicted to be overweight by 2050, the researchers forecasted half of all Australian children and adolescents (3.8m) would be overweight or obese.
The researchers defined overweight and obesity using BMI, acknowledging while it was not a perfect measure of individual-level health or disease risk, it is deemed an acceptable measure for large-scale monitoring of population-level risk.
For those in the study over 18, overweight was defined as a BMI between 25kg/m2 and 30kg/m2, and obese defined as a BMI 30kg/m2 or over, while for children under 18 years of age were based on classifications defined by the International Obesity Task Force criteria.
The study also found female adolescents in Australasia and the United States became more likely to be obese than overweight as early as 2010 – the first transition to what’s known as “obesity predominance” rather than “overweight predominance.”
The lead author, Dr Jessica Kerr, said this was not surprising as Australia and North America were “where the obesity epidemic really started”.
“Our local food supply systems have long been overtaken by these big food companies, so we’ve been consuming high-calorie foods with long shelf lives,” Kerr said.
Adolescent obesity increases risks for multiple cancers, kidney disease, musculoskeletal disorders, cardiovascular diseases, mental disorders and premature mortality as early as young adulthood, while the increasing number of young women approaching childbearing age with overweight and obesity would further “predetermine the health of the next generation,” the authors noted.
The study’s forecast scenario assumed the continuation of current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity which they say “have failed a generation of children and adolescents.”
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The researchers said it is governments rather than individuals that must address population-level drivers of obesity. “Although these findings indicate monumental failures in the management of overweight and obesity … a complete transition to global obesity can be avoided if action comes now, before 2030.”
The authors said regulatory interventions such as taxing sugar sweetened beverages, banning junk food advertising aimed at young people, funding healthy meals in schools and wider policies such as overhauling urban planning to encourage active lifestyles were needed.
Dr Emma Beckett, an adjunct senior lecturer in nutrition, dietetics and food innovation at the University of New South Wales, said the study was good-quality and important as “it’s necessary to get these predictions on paper so that we can take actions.”
While the paper’s calls to actions focused on preventing obesity, Beckett said it was also important to support people in larger bodies be healthier and eliminate the stigma they often face, particularly in exercise and medical settings.
Danni Rowlands, the head of prevention at the Butterfly Foundation, said public health campaigns should not take a weight-centric approach because it could have an adverse effect when trying to improve a person’s physical health.
“Health is so much more than just what a person’s weight is and this is particularly important for children, so that they don’t see their weight as a defining part of their identity,” Rowlands said.
The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation and the Australian national health and medical research council. The authors stated the funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation or the writing of the report.
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