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The National Hurricane Center has announced several changes to their products ahead of this year's hurricane season, which begins just over 80 days from now.
Here's a rundown on some of the changes ahead:
Earlier Heads Up On Potential Tropical Activity
Starting this year, advisories may be issued up to 72 hours before a system with tropical-storm-force winds or storm surge is likely to approach land regardless of whether or not tropical storm, hurricane or storm surge watches are issued.
In recent years, advisories were issued no more than 48 hours before a system is likely to bring dangerous wind or water hazards to land.
This change may mean that you will be in more cones of uncertainty this season or in them for longer durations.
This type of advisory package will still come under the umbrella of “potential tropical cyclones.” These are systems that are likely to be dangerous, but do not yet meet the stricter definition of a tropical depression or storm.
(IN DEPTH: What Is A Potential Tropical Cyclone?)
The Cone Will Be Narrower
Following the NHC’s best year for track forecasts on record, the cone of uncertainty will be getting a notable size adjustment for the upcoming year.
Remember that this once-a-year adjustment occurs because the cone of uncertainty is made up of rings of track error at each forecast time interval that link together to form a cone shape. These rings encompass two-thirds of the average error for the previous five hurricane seasons.
(MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Most of these rings will be between 2% and 6% smaller this year. The improvements in the eastern Pacific Basin were even more substantial.
To put this into context, the radii for the ring that forecasts where a tropical storm or hurricane’s center is in five days will decrease from 220 miles to 213 miles in the coming hurricane season.
Compared to 2003, when the cone of uncertainty was first pushed out to five days, the radii that make up the cone are more than 100 miles smaller. The radius of the circle that made up the five-day forecast in that year was 323 miles.
Here’s your first reminder of the season, and a reminder of growing importance: Impacts such as storm surge/rip currents, winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes (SWIFT) typical extend well outside of the cone of uncertainty.
The cone will shrink from year to year as forecasts improve, but the hurricanes themselves will not shrink. More impacts will extend beyond the cone with each coming year.
The cone of uncertainty is meant only to track a system’s center.
New Year, New Names
In 2019, Hurricane Dorian raked the Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane and killed dozens of people. Dorian was the costliest hurricane in history for the Bahamas, and thus the name was retired from future use.
(MORE: How Hurricanes Are Named)
Six years later, Dorian has been replaced by the name, “Dexter.” In a rare feat, Dexter is a new name for tropical cyclones globally.
Names rotate every six years and these names were last used in 2019, 2013, and 2007.
Many of the other names have been used for multiple decades. Some Oklahoma residents will remember “Erin” because of its reintensification and eye-like feature over the state in 2007. Houston residents may remember an “Imelda” from its last use in 2019 as a sudden tropical storm and flooding rainfall.
Here’s a pronunciation guide for a few of the trickier names:
Andrea AN-dree-uh
Fernand fair-NAHN (no “d”)
Humberto oom-BAIR-toh (no “h”)
(MORE: For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Other Odds And Ends
New rip current maps: The NHC will provide a national rip current forecast for the current day and the next day when at least one tropical storm or hurricane is active in the Atlantic basin or near Southern California. Roughly one in six people killed directly by a tropical storm or hurricane in the U.S. was killed by a rip current or in rough surf. Rip currents were the second deadliest threat over the last decade.
New storm surge forecasts for Hawaii: For the first time, probabilistic storm surge forecasts will be issued for Hawaii’s main islands (Kauai, Maui, Oahu and the Big Island) up to 72 hours before hurricane impacts are expected.
Warnings on cone graphics: The cone of uncertainty graphics from the National Hurricane Center will continue to emphasize that threats extend well beyond their own cone by overlaying wind alerts on them. This has been a practice used on some of our graphics at weather.com for several years.
Improved computer modeling: Each year, technology and modeling improve, and this year will be no different. NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will continue to be upgraded this season after making strides in 2024. The model successfully captured the rapid intensification of hurricanes Helene and Milton last year, which gave an earlier heads up to communities to prepare for stronger storms. The model was expected to be able to track multiple hurricanes simultaneously at an enhanced resolution in the near future.
Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
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